Inside the data that refutes the ‘Great Shift’ theory

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He spoke with great certainty, but still none.

Even in the racist, metaphor-ridden universe of rage and bigotry the Buffalo hitman enters, the hate scarecrows he trusts can’t survive scrutiny.

Even on trial for his own white supremacist support, it’s the so-called “Great Displacement” theory that led an 18-year-old man from Conklin, New York, to drive two hours to Buffalo and allegedly set fire to a supermarket. Targeting people of color where 10 people lost their lives is not standing up.

In essence, white people are not subject to a “genocide” in the United States and Europe, and Despite demographic changeits scale and scope are hotly debated by experts.

Moreover, commentators and social scientists say that even as the U.S. population becomes more racially diverse, white people are less likely to lose the privileged position they now enjoy as a group.

“This incident was perpetrated by a sick, insane person who was fed a daily diet of hate,” New York Attorney General Letitia James said.

“Let’s come together as one and put our differences aside and we’re all going to have Dr. [Martin Luther] King, that love, only love, will conquer hate.”

Officials in Erie County, New York, Payton blamed Gendron on a single charge of first-degree murder, which he pleads not guilty.

They said the young man who attacked a Tops supermarket on Saturday wanted to “continue his anger”.

“He was going to get in his car and keep going down Jefferson Avenue and keep doing the same thing,” Buffalo Police Commissioner Joseph Gramaglia told CNN.

Authorities in New York are currently reviewing a 180-page “manifesto” posted on the 4chan website, which the 18-year-old allegedly posted before he went on a live-streaming spree. He says he was inspired by watching a video of the 2019 mass shootings in Christchurch, New Zealand, broadcast live.

Police say shooting of Buffalo was ‘utterly evil’

“This mass migration and substitution fertility crisis is an attack on the people of Europe and, if not tackled, will ultimately result in a complete racial and cultural replacement of the people of Europe,” the manifesto, reflecting many examples of its kind, told a Black church in Charleston, South Carolina in June 2015. including those published by white supremacist Dylann Roof before the attack.

The manifesto echoes many of the claims made by those who believe in the Great Shift theory, a white idea of ​​defeat and slaughter that has existed for decades, even centuries, but has only recently begun to use the name.

Throughout the centuries of Black slavery in the United States, there were persistent racist claims that whites would lose their place if African Americans were reinstated as full citizens.

In early 20th century Europe, there was a belief among some that the white elite could lose to immigrants from these nations’ colonies.

Racist themes at the heart of Nazi ideology claimed that whites would be exterminated by the Jews. In advocating for Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, Vladimir Putin falsely claimed that Russian speakers in Ukraine were being wiped out.

In terms of publications supporting such an idea, the FBI suggests that among the most influential are: Turner DiariesA 1978 novel by William Luther Pierce under the pseudonym Andrew Macdonald about a race war and violent revolution in the United States and Le Big Displacementor Big ReplacementIt was published in 2011 by the French writer Renaud Camus.

These ideas have completely entered the mainstream in US politics over the past decade, with everyone from Donald Trump to Tucker Carlson repeating the main idea that whites are being replaced by people of color.

Ten people died as a white gunman deliberately targeted a market used by people of color

(AFP via Getty Images)

Last year, Carlson, who denied being racist and dismissed acts of political violence, was criticized for an episode in which he said the Democratic Party was “trying to replace the current voters in the United States with “new people, more obedient voters from the Third World”.

Among those who came to defend Carlson, Republican congressman Matt Gaetz from Florida said in a tweet that the TV host was “True on the Theory of Change in explaining what happened to America.”

America’s demographic is definitely changing. The Census Bureau said in its most recent publication: “The lone white adult population (ages 18 and over) increased from 74.7 percent in 2010 to 64.1 percent in 2020. By contrast, the multiethnic adult population rose to 64.1 percent in 2010. It increased from 2.1 to 8.8 percent in 2020.”

But Richard Alba, professor of sociology at the City University of New York (CUNY), Rebuilding the American Mainstreamtells Independent He said the statement was misleading.

He says the seemingly dramatic decline has more to do with a change in coding by the Census Bureau and a decision to allow people to choose to report more than one race to indicate their identity, rather than a change in location.

“I think the ‘great substitution theory’, like many common, alarmist-to-white viewpoints of looking at demographic change, is based on a dual view of society that society is composed of two ethnoracials. components, whites on the one hand and non-whites on the other,” he says.

“What this distorts is the amount of mixing that’s happening in the United States today, namely whites and nonwhites forming families, having children.”

Some estimates suggest that whites in the US could become “minority whites” by 2045, meaning whites will make up 49.7 percent of the population that year versus 24.6 percent for Hispanics, 13.1 percent for Blacks, and 13.1 percent for Asians. It will be 7.9. and 3.8 percent for multiracial populations.

Alba, last published The Great Demographic Illusion: Majority, Minority, and the Expanding American MainstreamHe says there is much less certainty about when the US will become a “majority minority”.

He also argues that the growing number of young Americans from ethnically-racially mixed families, consisting of one white and one non-white parent, has been overlooked.

“The contemporary intellectual landscape dominated by theories of race and racism has given birth to a majority-minority understanding of the American future; On this understanding, white people outnumber non-white Americans by mid-century.” Proceedings of the United States National Academy of Sciences.

“But assimilation as a set of processes with societal consequences is still strong, driven by demographic dynamics that create opportunities for minority mobility and linked to increased family mixing between white and non-white people.”

Even in the landscape of a changing America, others have pointed out that other fundamental tenets of the “Great Displacement” theory do not apply.

an article in Daily Point refuted another claim – that white birth rates are falling. According to Pew Social and Demographic Trends, birth rates for those who self-identify as white, Black, Hispanic, and Asian have dropped, he said.

It has also been falsely nailed, another longstanding right-wing talking point where non-white populations are more violent or prone to crime. He pointed to a report from 2015. National Academies of Sciences, Engineering and Medicine “Neighborhoods with a greater concentration of immigrants have much lower crime and violence rates than comparable non-immigrant neighborhoods,” he said.

By the way, a very popular article New York TimesFarhad Manjoo pointed out that in the wake of the white terrorist attacks on two mosques in Christchurch, New Zealand in March 2019, numbers alone do not tell the whole story or the strength or influence of different groups.

He made the argument that structural racism preserves the relative privilege of white people, a point repeated during the racial justice protests that swept the United States in the summer of 2020 following the murder of George Floyd.

The same is true in places like South Africa, where, thirty years after the end of apartheid, whites controlled 70 percent of arable land and dominated trade despite only making up 10 percent of the population.

“Demography is not destiny either,” Manjoo wrote. New York Times.

“Even if whites become a racial minority a few decades from now, they will not automatically lose much of their vast economic and political power, for this is America where inequality is tolerated and an aggrieved and wealthy political minority can reign indefinitely.”

Additional reporting by the Associated Press